The south-easterly view from the second of seven buildings at Timber Ridge to be completed. Closings began on units in this deed-restricted project in the spring and two more buildings are set to come online by mid-September.
This analysis is based on Eagle County property records (every recorded sale, not just ones that went through a broker) and current mortgage and market conditions.
The short version
The market is up this year — modestly, but genuinely. Through the first seven months of 2026, the total dollar value of everything sold in Eagle County is about 3% ahead of last year, and the number of sales is up about 4%. That's not a boom, but it's a real, if quiet, improvement.
That may be surprising if you'd seen the MLS-only numbers, which showed listings flooding the market (new listings up over 40%) without a matching jump in closings. The fuller county records tell a calmer story: sales are keeping pace with last year and then some, they're just not all happening through traditional brokered listings — plenty of new construction, land, and other deals close outside the MLS entirely.
It's been a bumpy road to get here
Month to month, 2026 has been all over the place. January started slow — sales dollars were down more than 40% from a year earlier. Things bounced back and forth through the spring, and then June came in hot: dollar volume for the month was up 84% over June of last year, on the back of some large closings. July settled into a healthier, more sustainable pace — up about 14% in dollars and 20% in the number of sales versus last July.
Zoom out, and the pattern is this: a slow start to the year, followed by real, building momentum from April onward. Buyers who sat out the winter — likely put off by one of the worst ski seasons in memory — came back once the snow (or lack of it) stopped being the story.
Who's buying has shifted
One of the more telling numbers in this data: locals now make up 57% of all buyers this year, up from 51% last year and the highest share in over a decade of records. Front Range buyers and international buyers are both down slightly. Out-of-state buyers are still a meaningful third of the market, and when they do come from elsewhere, Texas and Florida are by far the biggest sources — together accounting for close to 40% of all out-of-state purchases.
The practical read: with a rough ski season keeping some vacation-home buyers away, more of this year's activity has come from people who already live here or nearby — trading up, relocating within the valley, or buying investment property close to home.
Big trophy sales are still happening — they're just not carrying the market
A handful of properties have closed at prices over $20 million this year. While the highest price close was in Vail ($36 million), Beaver Creek has notched its share of $20+ million closings, perhaps indicating that it is closing the historical gap to Vail.
And a record price per square foot mark was set in Vail with Plaza Lodge R7 selling for $5,643 per square foot.
But the broader growth in activity isn't coming from the ultra-high end. It's coming from the middle of the market and from new and workforce housing. Deed-restricted (workforce) housing alone accounted for nearly 1 in 5 transactions this year, even though it's a small slice of total dollars — a reminder of how much of the valley's day-to-day transaction volume is tied to housing for people who work here, not just second-home buyers.
Prices themselves are holding fairly flat. The average price per square foot for single-family homes is up about 1% year over year; for condos and townhomes it's down about 2%. Nothing dramatic in either direction — this has been a market where activity, not pricing, is the real story this year.
What's driving all this
A brutal ski season kept the top of the market quiet for most of the winter, and it took until spring for buyer confidence to return. That recovery has now clearly taken hold.
Mortgage rates remain stuck in the mid-6% range nationally and have been essentially flat compared to a year ago. That matters less here than in most markets — a large share of Vail Valley buyers, especially above $2 million, aren't financing with a conventional mortgage — but it continues to be a headwind for move-up buyers relying on financing.
More local and regional buyers, fewer long-distance ones. That's consistent with a valley economy where the people living and working here are increasingly active participants in the market, not just the resort-town clientele from out of state.
Bottom line
This isn't a hot market, and it isn't a cold one — it's a recovering one. After a genuinely difficult winter, sales activity has strengthened steadily since spring, prices have held their ground, and locals have stepped up to fill the gap left by fewer out-of-town vacation buyers. If snowfall returns to normal this coming winter, the segment most likely to reawaken is the very top of the market — the trophy homes and ultra-luxury properties that sat quiet for most of this past year.
