Room at the Inn

Last week I did something I haven't done in a while. I went through the online availability at the six management companies I recommended in Why I Rarely Book Travel Through Airbnb and searched one set of dates: Saturday, December 26 to Saturday, January 2.

That's the week. The one families circle on the calendar a year out, and the one that in most of my 25 years running a vacation rental company was largely booked out by Halloween.

Across those six companies, I counted nearly 300 homes and condos still available.

That's a lot of empty fireplaces for the most valuable week of the ski season. And it isn't a fluke.

Confession: after 25 years running a vacation rental company here, my idea of a thrilling morning is still a fresh booking-pace report. I'll spare you most of it, but the industry data tells the same story.

Inntopia's DestiMetrics tracks lodging bookings at 17 western mountain resorts, Vail and Beaver Creek among them. As of September 30, December bookings across the West were down about 7% from last year. December was also the only winter month where nightly rates were lower.

Here's the part that caught my eye. After the worst snow years of the past two decades, bookings for the following winter usually came in slightly ahead by this point in the fall. This year they're down more than 8%. So it isn't only last winter's thin snow.

The economy is part of it. Consumer confidence hit a 12-year low in September before bouncing back some in October, and airfares are running more than 20% above a year ago. Tom Foley, who tracks all of this for Inntopia, also sees real pushback on nightly rates around $750. Put simply, people are waiting: on snow, on prices, and on how they feel about their own finances.

The short version: this is a rare year when the holiday week is something of a buyer's market for choice, if not quite for price. What I mean by that…

You get to pick, not settle. In a normal year, a late holiday booker takes whatever's left: the wrong side of town, a bunk room short, a long walk to the lift. This year you can have way more options to pick from which means you can likely get exactly the place you need. With Christmas and New Year's both landing on a Friday, the 26th to the 2nd is a clean Saturday-to-Saturday week, too.

Don't expect a fire sale. Do ask for the extras. Holiday rates are sticky, and most managers would rather not cut the headline price. Foley says the operators getting traction right now are building packages, adding perks and looking for the "carrot" that gets a traveler to commit. No harm in asking for a shorter minimum stay, an earlier check-in or later checkout, ski storage or lockers, airport transfers, a grocery stock-up, a more flexible cancellation policy. Good management companies will look for ways to add value without cutting price.

Waiting is a bet on the weather. Right now both sides are watching each other. Travelers are waiting on snow and owners are waiting on travelers. A big early storm changes that fast, because snow-driven bookings come in late and in a rush. If the much-discussed El Niño delivers, a lot of these 300 homes could disappear in a couple of weeks. (Worth knowing: El Niño has historically been a mixed bag for central Colorado, so nobody can promise you either way - check out our piece on the winter weather outlook from a few weeks ago )

The mountain should be ready. Vail is targeting a November 13 opening and Beaver Creek November 25, with snowmaking crews working since mid-October. Holiday-week terrain depends on what falls between now and then, but both mountains have deep snowmaking systems built for exactly this.

Read the cancellation policy twice. If you book now to lock in the right place, flexibility is worth more than a small discount. And book direct with the management company, or through an advisor, rather than through a platform. On a holiday week the platform markup I wrote about in October can run well over a thousand dollars.

Lodging is open. Everything else isn't. Even a softer holiday week is still the busiest week of the year in the Valley. Ski school, rentals, and dinner reservations at the places you love book up regardless. Lock those in as soon as your lodging is set, and sort out lift access before you arrive. Walk-up holiday lift tickets are eye-watering.

If your home is still open for the holidays, you're in good company, and there's still time. Before you slash the rate, talk to your manager about adding value instead: a shorter minimum, a transfer, a stocked fridge. Those protect your rate for future years in a way a deep discount doesn't.

If the holidays are back on the table for you, this is a good year to have someone local doing the legwork. I know these management companies and many of the homes they run. I'll find the right place for your group, book it direct, ask for the perks that are on offer this year, and line up the rest: transfers, groceries, dinner reservations. Reach me at [email protected] or +1.970.390.2467.

And if you'd rather wait for the first big storm, I get it. Just don't wait for the second one.

The cover image is from the living room at Paragon, a 7 bedroom ski in-ski out property in the exclusive Strawberry Park neighborhood in Beaver Creek, available through Moving Mountains.